Jalen Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/22/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jalen Johnson

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Atlanta Hawks · Jan 22, 2024

Updated Jan 22, 2024 9:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 5.6 rate, Jalen Johnson's points per game have spiked this year to 15.0.
Jalen Johnson has been on the court for 30.8 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a good one for scoring; the other team's starting PFs have posted the 25th-highest field goal rate in the NBA this year (52.6%).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA this year.
The Atlanta Hawks will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 20 games (the Kings).

Favors Under

Jalen Johnson has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (83rd percentile).
In terms of scoring, the Atlanta Hawks's subpar 42.9% field goal rate places 3rd-worst in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings may be a tough one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 2.4 free throws per game over the last 20 games (14th-least in the league).
Jalen Johnson will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally reduces stat production across the board.