Jalen Green Points - Player Prop Bet 12/2/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Green

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets · Dec 2, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 3:43 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Green has attempted 8.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 2.6 more than he's attempted in all games this season at home.
Among all players in the NBA, Jalen Green measures in the 81st percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 31.3 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year.
The Houston Rockets have been the 7th-most efficient shooting team in the league over the last 5 games.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the quickest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while traveling, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Rockets.
With the home court advantage, the Lakers have allowed the 10th-least offensive rebounds per game (10.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 17.9 mark, Jalen Green's field goal attempts have been reduced this season to 15.1 per game.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposing team's starting SGs have shot 39.0% on field goals (11th-worst in the league) against the Lakers, identifying this as a challenging matchup.
The 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.6 free throws per game (10th-lowest in the NBA) against the Lakers, struggling to get to the foul line.