Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2024

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Jalen Duren

NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons · Mar 3, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 11:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 3.9 clip, Jalen Duren's shots from the field converted have spiked this season to 6.0 per game.
Jalen Duren has played 30.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 80th percentile.
The matchup with Wendell Carter Jr. places in just the 100th percentile for difficulty with the opposing team's starting Cs sinking a monstrous 64.3% of their shot attempts from the field this year.
The 5th-quickest pace road offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pistons.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jalen Duren has averaged 3.1 personal fouls per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 98th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
As it relates to scoring, the Pistons's subpar 112.5 points per game rates 9th-lowest in the NBA this year.
The Pistons will likely see a decline in plays in this game from competing against the most lethargic tempo home team in the league over the last 10 games (the Magic).
Jalen Duren stands to suffer a reduction in productivity across the board as a result of being on the road in this matchup.

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