Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/10/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Detroit Pistons vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 10, 2024

Updated Jan 10, 2024 9:58 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Duren has converted 74.4% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games, 8.2% more than he's converted in all games this season.
The matchup against Victor Wembanyama is a strong one for field goal attempts; when guarding fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 11.2 field goals per game (96th percentile).
The 4th-most up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Detroit Pistons.
The Detroit Pistons are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this contest from facing the fastest pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Spurs).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate further chances for scoring and assists, and the Pistons rank 6thbest in in the league with 12.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Jalen Duren ranks in the 97th percentile for personal fouls, registering a massive 3.1 fouls per game this year.
With respect to scoring, the Pistons's lackluster 110.4 points per game when playing at home places 4th-worst in the NBA this year.
This matchup is a good one for three-pointers; opposing clubs have tallied the most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (14.4).
The clash with Victor Wembanyama when it comes to getting to the charity stripe rates in the 24th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.9 foul shots per game this year when they are at home.