Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/1/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Houston Rockets vs Detroit Pistons · Jan 1, 2024

Updated Jan 2, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Duren has converted 71.8% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 8.8% higher than he's put through the net in all games this year.
Jalen Duren has been on the court for 30.1 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 77th percentile.
The 4th-speediest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Detroit Pistons.
The Rockets have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which ought to raise possessions for the Detroit Pistons.
The Pistons check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jalen Duren rates in the 8th percentile for three-point prowess while playing on the road with a a feeble 0.0% rate this year.
In terms of scoring, the Pistons's subpar 110.1 points per game settles in as the 3rd-fewest in the league over the last 20 games.
Over the last 5 games when they are on the road, the other team has averaged 49.7% on shots from the field (8th-best in the NBA) against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a strong matchup.
The matchup against Alperen Sengun is a difficult one for scoring; when Sengun is at home and squaring off against other starting Cs this year, they have made just 4.5 shots made from the field per game (7th percentile).
Over the last 20 games, opposing teams have attempted 27.6 foul shots per game (2nd-most in the league) vs. the Houston Rockets, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.