Jalen Duren Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jalen Duren

C · Detroit Pistons

Points

Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Duren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jalen Duren has converted an impressive 5.7 shots made from the field per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 3.9 mark last year.
The matchup against the Boston Celtics is a difficult one; they have allowed the 3rd-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs this year (109.9).
The matchup vs. Kristaps Porzingis is a positive one for field goals; when Porzingis is on his home court fellow starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a massive 61.6% of their shot attempts from the field (86th percentile).
The Pistons have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA away from their home court this year.
The Detroit Pistons check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jalen Duren has sunk 0.0% of his treys away from home this year, ranking him in the 8th percentile out of all players in the league.
Out of all players in the league, Jalen Duren slots into the 98th percentile for personal fouls, logging a massive 3.4 fouls per game this year.
The Detroit Pistons have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The Pistons will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from competing against the 3rd-most lethargic pace offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics).
Over the last 5 games, the other team has snagged 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) against the Boston Celtics (lengthening possessions that can bring about more opportunities for offense).