Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/23/2024

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Jabari Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Nov 23, 2024

Updated Nov 24, 2024 3:05 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Rockets have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the league this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Rockets.
The Rockets have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Jabari Smith Jr. has attempted and missed 0.1 free throw attempts per game playing at home this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 17th percentile for misses at home.
Jabari Smith Jr. stands to get a boost in production for all stats in light of controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

The Rockets have been the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 29.6% on three-pointers (4th-lowest in the league) against the Trail Blazers, resulting in a hard matchup.
Over the last 10 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 2.5 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

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