Jabari Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Jabari Smith Jr.

F · Houston Rockets

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 1:23 AM EST

Analysis

Jabari Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jabari Smith Jr. has made 39.5% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games on the road, 12.5% higher than he's sunk in all games this year when playing on the road.
Jabari Smith Jr. has played 31.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 83rd percentile.
The 6th-speediest pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team has captured 9.5 offensive rebounds per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Memphis Grizzlies (diminishing possessions that could otherwise result in bonus opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jabari Smith Jr. rates in the 91st percentile for personal fouls, tallying a colossal 2.7 fouls per game this year.
As it relates to shooting, the Houston Rockets's subpar 108.2 points per game ranks 4th-lowest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have tallied 3.0 three attempts per game (14th-lowest in the NBA) against the Grizzlies, creating a challenging matchup.
The Rockets are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from competing against the 7th-slowest tempo team in the league over the last 15 games (the Grizzlies).
Jabari Smith Jr. will likely see a decline in productivity across the board considering playing away from home in this game.