Herbert Jones Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Herbert Jones

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 27, 2024

Updated Jan 28, 2024 2:33 AM UTC

Analysis

Herbert Jones Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Herbert Jones has converted 64.7% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 14.9% higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
Herbert Jones has converted 58.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 10 games, 20.9% higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. the Bucks is a good one; they have allowed the 28th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SFs over the last 5 games (19.8).
The Pelicans will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bucks).
The Pelicans check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Herbert Jones has been called for 2.8 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, placing him in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Pelicans rank as the 5th-least aggressive offense in the NBA when playing on the road this year in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
The 4th-least up-tempo pace visiting offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Pelicans.
Playing at home, the Bucks have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Herbert Jones will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road generally worsens player production for all stats.