Harrison Barnes Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Harrison Barnes

NBA · Player Props

Harrison Barnes

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 3:02 AM UTC

Analysis

Harrison Barnes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-121/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 9th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Kings.
The Kings will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-speediest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the San Antonio Spurs).
The Kings have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are playing at home, opposing squads have come down with 9.5 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the San Antonio Spurs (minimizing possessions that could otherwise bring about additional opportunities for offense).
Harrison Barnes will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court tends to increase player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 17.6% on 3-pointers (15th-weakest in the NBA) vs. the Spurs, designating this as a hard matchup.
In terms of getting to the charity stripe, the Kings's subpar 15.8 foul shots per game measures as the 3rd-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup with Devin Vassell with respect to getting to the foul line slots into the 10th percentile for difficulty with rival starting SFs attempting only 2.1 free throws per game this year.

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