Grant Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 5/23/2023

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Grant Williams

NBA · Player Props

Grant Williams

F · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · May 23, 2023

Updated May 23, 2023 10:21 PM EST

Analysis

Grant Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-112/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Grant Williams has converted 51.3% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 5.4% higher than he's put through the net in all games this season while playing away from home.
The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing squads have attempted a mere 20.1 free throws per game when the Heat are at home this year (least in the league).

Favors Under

Grant Williams has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the league (78th percentile).
This matchup is a positive one for three-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing clubs have tallied the 2nd-most threes per game in the league against them this year (13.3).
The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the Celtics.
Grant Williams has sunk 58.3% of his foul shots over the last 15 games, -17.3% less than he's converted in all games this year.

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