Giannis Antetokounmpo Points - Player Prop Bet 4/24/2023

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Giannis Antetokounmpo

NBA · Player Props

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 24, 2023

Updated Apr 24, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Giannis Antetokounmpo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 30.7 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this metric: 99th percentile.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has successfully made 65.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games, 10.7% more than he's sunk overall this year.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 31.2 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 83rd percentile.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games away from home.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Heat is a challenging one for 3-pointers; the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 12th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (29.1%).
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Bucks.
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Heat is a challenging one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.8 free throws per game this year (14th-least in the NBA).
Giannis Antetokounmpo will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually worsens stat production in all stat categories.

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