Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2025

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 14, 2025

Updated Mar 15, 2025 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has attempted 8.4 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this season at home.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 34.1 minutes per game while at home this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The matchup against Dallas is a positive one for three-pointers; when the Dallas Mavericks are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 9th-most 3-point shots per game in the NBA this year (2.4).
The Mavericks have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 25 games away from their home stadium, which ought to raise possessions for the Rockets.
The Rockets rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Fred VanVleet lands in the 85th percentile for personal fouls, registering a massive 2.4 fouls per game this year.
The Rockets rank as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games on their home court.
The Houston Rockets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games on their home court.
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.9 free throws per game over the last 20 games (least in the league).

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