Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 2/23/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns · Feb 23, 2024

Updated Feb 24, 2024 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.7 minutes per game on his home court this year, ranking in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The 8th-quickest pace home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to boost plays for the Houston Rockets.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in added chances for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets grade out 2ndbest in in the league with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
Fred VanVleet will likely see a spike in output in all stat categories considering controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 16.2 rate, Fred VanVleet's field goal attempts have dropped this year to 13.4 per game.
In contrast to last season's 8.8 rate, Fred VanVleet's three-point attempts have diminished this season to 7.7 per game.
The Rockets have been the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games.
The matchup vs. Phoenix is a tough one; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs this year (12.2).
Over the last 15 games, the other team has grabbed 12.9 offensive boards per game (most in the NBA) against the Phoenix Suns (preserving possessions that can produce more chances for offense).

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