Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 1/1/2024

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Detroit Pistons · Jan 1, 2024

Updated Jan 2, 2024 1:27 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has made 3.0 3-pointers per game this year, putting him in the 95th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Fred VanVleet has played 36.5 minutes per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 99th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets are expected to see a spike in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-quickest pace team in the league over the last 10 games (the Pistons).
The Houston Rockets have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to technicals.
With respect to 3-point attempts, the 7th-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Houston Rockets.
The matchup against Detroit is a tough one for field goals; when the Detroit Pistons are on the road, opposing starting PGs have compiled the 14th-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (37.4%).

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