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Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet Points
Player Prop - 11/28/2023

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Fred VanVleet has tallied 36.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 100th percentile.

Fred VanVleet has averaged a measly 1.8 personal fouls per game this year, quite a bit less than his 2.8 fouls per game last year.

The Houston Rockets will likely see a rise in plays today from sharing the court with the 6th-quickest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 10 games (the Mavericks).

Since the start of last season when they are at home, opposing starting PGs have attempted 4.4 free throws per game (27th-most in the NBA) vs. the Mavericks, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Fred VanVleet has failed to convert 5.6 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, significantly more than his 5.8 rate last year.

The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a tough one for 3-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have posted the 12th-lowest three percentage in the league since the start of last season (28.4%).

The 3rd-least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year has been the Rockets.

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Houston Rockets rank 3rdworst in in the NBA as the road team with just 9.3 offensive boards per game this year.

On the road, the Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (14.0) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

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