Fred VanVleet Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Houston Rockets

Points

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet slots into the 97th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc, logging 8.5 per game this year.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 35.1 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
As it relates to treys, the Rockets's remarkable 37.9% rate of drained threes places 10th-most in the league this year.
This year, opposing starting PGs have averaged 43.0% on 3-pointers (24th-highest in the league) against the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a strong matchup.
This year when they are on the road, the other team has grabbed 9.6 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (losing possessions that could otherwise generate added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Fred VanVleet rates in the 13th percentile for shooting effectiveness with a a feeble 35.7% rate this year.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.1 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The Rockets have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year.
The Rockets are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 4th-slowest pace team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
The Rockets have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

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