Fred VanVleet Assists - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2023

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Fred VanVleet

NBA · Player Props

Fred VanVleet

G · Toronto Raptors

Assists

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 5, 2023

Updated Apr 6, 2023 2:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Fred VanVleet Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Fred VanVleet has tallied 10.6 assists per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 3.0 more than he's tallied overall this season on the road.
Fred VanVleet has been on the court for 36.3 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 99th percentile.
The Celtics have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to increased plays for the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
At home, the Celtics have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Fred VanVleet has committed 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (90th percentile).
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road.
Fred VanVleet will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases player production in all facets of the game.

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