Franz Wagner Points - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Franz Wagner

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Orlando Magic vs Portland Trail Blazers · Apr 1, 2024

Updated Apr 1, 2024 7:12 PM EST

Analysis

Franz Wagner Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Franz Wagner has averaged 31.7 minutes per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Magic.
The Orlando Magic rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Among all players in the NBA, Franz Wagner comes in at the 92nd percentile for foul shots made, posting a monstrous 3.6 per game this year.
Franz Wagner ought to get a boost in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 36.6% clip, Franz Wagner's three-point effectiveness has decreased this season to 25.3%.
The Magic have been the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
This year when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have notched 12.1 points per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Trail Blazers, resulting in a difficult matchup for offensive productivity.
The Orlando Magic have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games at home.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.9 foul shots per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.