Franz Wagner Points - Player Prop Bet 1/26/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Franz Wagner

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Orlando Magic · Jan 26, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2024 1:32 AM UTC

Analysis

Franz Wagner Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Franz Wagner has made 52.8% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 6.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Franz Wagner ranks in the 87th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 32.9 minutes per game this year.
The matchup against Memphis is a favorable one; when the Grizzlies have the home court advantage, they have given up the 22nd-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (15.8).
The Magic have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have captured 9.5 offensive rebounds per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Grizzlies (diminishing possessions that could otherwise produce more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Franz Wagner has averaged 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA (77th percentile).
The Magic have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The Magic have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games on their home court, which should decrease plays for the Orlando Magic.
The matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted just 2.6 free throws per game over the last 12 games (13th-least in the league).