Franz Wagner Points - Player Prop Bet 12/31/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Franz Wagner

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Orlando Magic · Dec 31, 2023

Updated Jan 1, 2024 1:05 AM EST

Analysis

Franz Wagner Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-141/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Franz Wagner has put up 27.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.4 higher than he's put up in all games this year.
Franz Wagner has tallied 34.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 88th percentile.
The matchup against Phoenix is a strong one for 3-pointers; when the Phoenix Suns have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 21st-most threes per game in the NBA this year (1.9).
The Magic have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games.
Franz Wagner has sunk 6.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's converted over the course of the year.

Favors Under

The Magic are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from facing the most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Phoenix Suns).
The Magic check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
The Phoenix Suns have allowed the 8th-most offensive boards per game (11.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.6 foul shots per game (10th-fewest in the league) vs. the Suns, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.
Franz Wagner ought to experience a decrease in effectiveness for all stats considering playing on the visting team in this game.