Duncan Robinson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/20/2024

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Duncan Robinson

NBA · Player Props

Duncan Robinson

F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 20, 2024

Updated Dec 21, 2024 1:08 AM EST

Analysis

Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Duncan Robinson has sunk 53.0% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 11.1% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.
The Heat check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.
Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 19.1% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.
Duncan Robinson ought to see a spike in productivity across the board on account of enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have shot 34.7% on shots from the field (lowest in the NBA) against the Thunder, designating this as a tough matchup.
The least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Miami Heat.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 10thworst in in the league with only 10.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
The matchup against the Thunder may be a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted just 1.9 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the league).

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