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Duncan Robinson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-130).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -130.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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In comparison to last season's 1.7 rate, Duncan Robinson's 3-point shots scored have surged this season to 2.9 per game.Duncan Robinson has been on the court for 29.1 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 75th percentile.In regard to threes, the Miami Heat's terrific 38.4% rate of drained threes ranks 3rd-most in the league this year.The Toronto Raptors have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Heat.This year, opposing squads have snagged 10.1 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) against the Raptors (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Out of all players in the league, Duncan Robinson rates in the 76th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a monstrous 2.3 fouls per game this year.Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have registered 125.2 points per game (2nd-most in the league) against the Raptors, identifying this as a favorable matchup for offensive efficiency.The slowest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Miami Heat.The Heat check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).Duncan Robinson should see a decline in performance across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.
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