Draymond Green Points - Player Prop Bet 11/6/2023

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Draymond Green

NBA · Player Props

Draymond Green

F · Golden State Warriors

Points

Detroit Pistons vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 6, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Draymond Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pistons have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 6 games in their home stadium, which ought to increase opportunities for the Warriors.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Golden State Warriors rank 12thbest in in the NBA while playing at home with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Detroit Pistons is a favorable one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a whopping 3.6 foul shots per game since the start of last season (23rd-most in the league).

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 55.2% clip, Draymond Green's shooting prowess has regressed this season to 44.6%.
Draymond Green has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, significantly more than his 3.4 fouls per game last year.
Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 44.7% on field goal attempts (13th-worst in the NBA) against the Detroit Pistons, making this a challenging matchup.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.
While at home, the Pistons have allowed the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the NBA to the other team since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

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