Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 11/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Nov 8, 2023

Updated Nov 8, 2023 8:18 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has attempted 20.7 field goals per game without the home court advantage since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the NBA, Donovan Mitchell slots into the 99th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc with the home court advantage, posting 9.3 per game since the start of last season.
Donovan Mitchell has tallied 35.6 minutes per game when playing at home since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
In terms of shooting, the Cleveland Cavaliers's stellar 48.5% field goal rate measures as the 7th-highest in the NBA since the start of last season.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from competing against the 10th-speediest pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Favors Under

Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, the other team's starting SGs have shot 31.1% on 3-pointers (14th-worst in the NBA) vs. the Thunder, marking this as a tough matchup.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Cleveland Cavaliers rank 8thworst in in the league on their home court with only 9.7 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
At home, the Oklahoma City Thunder have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the NBA to their opposition since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Donovan Mitchell will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens player performance in all stat categories.