Donovan Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Donovan Mitchell

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 4, 2023 10:31 PM EST

Analysis

Donovan Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Donovan Mitchell has scored 35.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 7.8 higher than he's scored in all games this year.
Donovan Mitchell has sunk 4.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 higher than he's made in all games this season while playing on the road.
Donovan Mitchell has averaged 35.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 97th percentile.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road.
The Magic have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 20 games, which ought to increase possessions for the Cavaliers.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Magic is a tough one for 3-pointers; opposing starting SGs have compiled the 14th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (29.8%).
The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The Magic have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Donovan Mitchell will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling usually worsens player production in all facets of the game.