Domantas Sabonis Points - Player Prop Bet 1/16/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Domantas Sabonis

F-C · Sacramento Kings

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 16, 2024

Updated Jan 17, 2024 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Domantas Sabonis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Domantas Sabonis has sunk 57.4% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 15 games on the road, 10.2% higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the year while on the road.
Domantas Sabonis has tallied 34.5 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
The matchup vs. Jusuf Nurkic is a strong one for 3-pointers; when squaring off against other starting Cs this year, they have successfully made an enormous 48.7% of their three-point attempts (96th percentile).
The Kings have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Domantas Sabonis has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (96th percentile).
The Sacramento Kings will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 4th-slowest tempo home offense in the league this year (the Phoenix Suns).
This year, their opposition has secured 11.0 offensive boards per game (10th-highest in the league) against the Phoenix Suns (maintaining possessions that can lead to bonus opportunities for offense).
Domantas Sabonis has sunk a measly 62.7% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly less than his 73.9 rate last year.
As a team, the Kings have been poor at getting to the free-throw line of late: 2nd-worst in the NBA over the last 20 games with a lowly 19.8 foul shots per game.