Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2023

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Deni Avdija

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards · Nov 12, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 7:27 PM UTC

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In comparison to last season's 3.2 rate, Deni Avdija's field goals made have jumped this season to 5.6 per game.
As it relates to shooting, the Washington Wizards's superb 123.0 points per game places most in the league this year.
Since the start of last season when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have averaged 39.8% on threes (30th-best in the league) vs. the Nets, identifying this as a favorable matchup.
The quickest tempo home offense in the league this year has been the Wizards.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Deni Avdija measures in the 80th percentile for technical fouls, posting a monstrous 0.0 fouls per game away from his home court this year.
The Brooklyn Nets have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Wizards.
Offensive rebounds save possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Washington Wizards rank 5thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with only 9.1 offensive rebounds per game this year.
While on the road, the Nets have given up the 10th-most offensive boards per game (11.8) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Deni Avdija has made a lowly 60.0% of his foul shots this year, significantly lower than his 72.8 rate last year.

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