DeMar DeRozan Points - Player Prop Bet 11/11/2024

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DeMar DeRozan

NBA · Player Props

DeMar DeRozan

G-F · Sacramento Kings

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 11, 2024

Updated Nov 12, 2024 12:54 AM EST

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-137/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

DeMar DeRozan has attempted 20.6 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.9 higher than he's attempted overall this year.
DeMar DeRozan has tallied 38.4 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 100th percentile.
With respect to shooting, the Sacramento Kings's stellar 120.4 points per game while playing on the road settles in as the 4th-best in the league over the last 5 games.
The 6th-speediest pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Kings.
Out of all players in the NBA, DeMar DeRozan rates in the 95th percentile for getting to the free-throw line, compiling a massive 6.6 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Spurs is a tough one for scoring; opposing starting SFs have posted the lowest FG% in the NBA this year (36.0%).
The Spurs have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA on their home court this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
DeMar DeRozan will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually lowers player production across the board.

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