DeMar DeRozan Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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DeMar DeRozan

NBA · Player Props

DeMar DeRozan

G-F · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 1:08 AM EST

Analysis

DeMar DeRozan Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In comparison to last season's 24.1 mark, DeMar DeRozan's points per game have spiked this season to 24.6.
Out of all players in the league, DeMar DeRozan comes in at the 93rd percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 34.3 minutes per game away from home this year.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have tallied 7.0 field goals per game (22nd-most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, labeling this as a favorable matchup.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Chicago Bulls rank 3rdbest in in the league with 10.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 7 games.
DeMar DeRozan will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage usually boosts player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bulls have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Chicago Bulls have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year.
The Chicago Bulls are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from squaring off against the 5th-slowest tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).
The Miami Heat have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
In comparison to last year's 6.1 rate, DeMar DeRozan's free throws scored have been reduced this year to 5.3 per game.

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