Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 2:13 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard registers in the 94th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 34.7 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the highest scoring offense in the league away from their home court this year.
The most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, opposing starting PGs have attempted 6.2 foul shots per game (28th-highest in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, easily managing to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 4.2 mark, Damian Lillard's threes scored have decreased this year to 3.0 per game.
The matchup vs. Denver is a challenging one for three-point shots; when the Nuggets are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have compiled the 14th-lowest three percentage in the league this year (20.5%).
The Bucks will likely see a decline in plays in this game from competing against the most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league as the away team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games when they are on the road, opposing teams have come down with 10.5 offensive boards per game (10th-highest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets (lengthening possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense).

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