Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 1/26/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Jan 26, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2024 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has attempted 20.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.7 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Among all players in the league, Damian Lillard measures in the 98th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, totaling 8.6 per game this year.
Damian Lillard has played 35.3 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 96th percentile.
The Bucks rank as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a strong one for three-pointers; the opposition's starting PGs have shot for the 29th-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (41.4%).

Favors Under

The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court, which should lead to fewer plays for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with only 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Relative to last year's 9.6 clip, Damian Lillard's number of foul shot attempts has tailed off this year to 8.1 foul shot attempts per game.
Over the last 15 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.5 free throws per game (15th-fewest in the league) vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, struggling to draw fouls.

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