Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard lands in the 81st percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 32.6 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year.
Damian Lillard has averaged 1.2 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, placing him in the 17th percentile -- among the NBA's least-whistled.
In terms of offense, the Bucks's excellent 118.1 points per game as the away team measures as the 6th-most in the NBA this year.
The Bucks have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-speediest tempo home offense in the league this year (the Mavericks).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has logged a measly 24.6 points per game this year, significantly lower than his 32.2 points per game last year.
Damian Lillard has attempted a measly 8.7 shots from downtown per game this season, quite a bit less than his 11.3 mark last season.
The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a hard one; they have given up the 14th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs since the start of last season (15.6).
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, the other team has secured 11.9 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (lengthening possessions that can result in extra chances for offense).