Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs New York Knicks · Mar 14, 2023

Updated Mar 15, 2023 2:12 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has averaged 29.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 more than he's averaged overall this season.
Damian Lillard has sunk 4.3 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.6 higher than he's made from three overall this year while at home.
Damian Lillard has tallied 35.9 minutes per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The Portland Trail Blazers have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Knicks have given up the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Portland Trail Blazers have been the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The matchup vs. the Knicks is a challenging one for threes; the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 9th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (32.2%).
The Knicks have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league away from their home court this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Trail Blazers.

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