Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 2/8/2023

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors · Feb 8, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has attempted 22.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Damian Lillard has attempted 11.0 shots from downtown per game this season, a significant increase from his 9.8 mark last season.
Damian Lillard has been on the court for 34.9 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
The Portland Trail Blazers rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games playing at home.
The Warriors have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to raise plays for the Trail Blazers.

Favors Under

The matchup against Jordan Poole is a tough one for threes; when Poole is away from his home court and squaring off against fellow starting PGs this year, they have converted a lowly 49.4% of their treys (100th percentile).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Portland Trail Blazers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
When playing on the road, the Warriors have given up the 8th-least offensive rebounds per game (10.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Jordan Poole is a tough one for getting to the free throw line; when facing fellow starting PGs this year, they have attempted a mere 4.5 free throws per game (83rd percentile).