Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 2/3/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Washington Wizards vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 3, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has averaged 42.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 11.5 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.
Damian Lillard has attempted 11.1 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, a big improvement over his 9.8 rate last season.
Damian Lillard has played 35.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 98th percentile.
The Wizards have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Trail Blazers.
The Portland Trail Blazers rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

This matchup is a challenging one for 3-pointers; opposing teams have posted the 10th-lowest three percentage in the league over the last 20 games while playing at home (36.2%).
The matchup vs. the Wizards is a hard one for field goals; the other team's starting SGs have posted the 7th-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (43.0%).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA away from their home court this year.
Damian Lillard will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to reduces player production across the board.

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