Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 4/23/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers · Apr 23, 2024

Updated Apr 24, 2024 12:34 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 7.1 rate, Damian Lillard's off the mark three-point shots have fallen this year to 5.5 per game.
Damian Lillard has been on the court for 35.4 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 96th percentile.
In terms of 3-pointers, the Milwaukee Bucks's impressive 14.9 converted threes per game while on their home court measures as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Bucks.
Damian Lillard will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city generally raises player performance across the board.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Pacers is a hard one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting PGs have averaged the least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.6).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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