Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 12/27/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Dec 27, 2023

Updated Dec 27, 2023 11:55 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-139/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has played 35.0 minutes per game on the road this year, placing him in the 94th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
Damian Lillard has averaged just 0.0 technical fouls per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 0.1 technicals per game last year.
As it relates to threes, the Milwaukee Bucks's outstanding 38.6% rate of converted threes when playing on the road comes in as the 4th-best in the league this year.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 2.9 threes per game (29th-highest in the league) vs. the Nets, identifying this as a good matchup.
The 2nd-fastest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Bucks.

Favors Under

In comparison to last season's 11.3 clip, Damian Lillard's shots from behind the three-point arc have diminished this season to 8.8 per game.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a decline in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 4th-slowest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year (the Nets).
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Nets have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Damian Lillard will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually decreases stat production in all facets of the game.