Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 1:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard lands in the 81st percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 32.6 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year.
Damian Lillard has averaged 1.2 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, placing him in the 17th percentile -- among the NBA's least-whistled.
The Bucks have been the 4th-most aggressive offense in the league when playing at home since the start of last season when it comes to three-point attempts.
The Bucks have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-speediest tempo home offense in the league this year (the Mavericks).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has attempted a measly 8.7 shots from downtown per game this season, quite a bit less than his 11.3 mark last season.
Since the start of last season when they are on the road, the opposition's starting PGs have shot 26.7% on threes (15th-lowest in the league) against the Mavericks, resulting in a challenging matchup.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, the other team has secured 11.9 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (lengthening possessions that can result in extra chances for offense).

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