Damian Lillard Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Assists

Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Clippers · Mar 4, 2024

Updated Mar 5, 2024 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-152/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has totaled 6.8 assists per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 97th percentile.
Out of all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard registers in the 93rd percentile for playing time, averaging a colossal 34.4 minutes per game while at home this year.
Damian Lillard stands to see an increase in efficiency in all facets of the game in light of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has accumulated 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's accumulated overall this year.
The 5th-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 6th-least up-tempo tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Clippers).
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games when they are at home, opposing teams have grabbed 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (most in the NBA) against the LA Clippers (lengthening possessions that can result in added opportunities for offense).

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