Buddy Hield Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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Buddy Hield

NBA · Player Props

Buddy Hield

G · Indiana Pacers

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Buddy Hield Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indiana Pacers check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The quickest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Pacers.
The matchup against Minnesota may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a massive 3.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Timberwolves are on their home court (22nd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 16.8 rate, Buddy Hield's points per game have declined this year to 12.8.
Buddy Hield has converted a measly 2.8 three-point shots per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 3.6 rate last year.
Buddy Hield has been called for 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.1 higher than he's been called for over the course of the year on the road.
This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SGs have averaged 34.4% on field goals (15th-weakest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, designating this as a challenging matchup.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease plays for the Indiana Pacers.

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