Brook Lopez Points - Player Prop Bet 4/2/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Brook Lopez

C · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Apr 2, 2023

Updated Apr 3, 2023 2:53 AM EST

Analysis

Brook Lopez Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brook Lopez has successfully made 7.5 buckets per game over the last 15 games, 1.5 more than he's converted overall this year.
Brook Lopez has attempted 4.7 3-point shots per game this season, significantly more than his 3.2 mark last season.
Brook Lopez has tallied an impressive 29.9 minutes per game this year, a significant increase from his 24.8 minutes per game last year.
The matchup against Philadelphia is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; when the 76ers are the visiting squad, the other team's starting Cs have averaged the 27th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (1.8).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

Brook Lopez has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The matchup vs. Joel Embiid is a challenging one for three-pointers; when Embiid is on the visiting team and facing opposing starting Cs this year, they have made a measly 23.9% of their 3-point shots (7th percentile).
The 76ers have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to reduce possessions for the Bucks.
When playing away from home, the 76ers have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.0) in the league to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been lousy at drawing fouls recently: 4th-worst in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home, averaging a measly 19.6 foul shot attempts per game.