Ben Simmons Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/8/2023

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Ben Simmons

NBA · Player Props

Ben Simmons

G-F · Brooklyn Nets

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets · Jan 8, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Ben Simmons Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ben Simmons has posted 5.2 defensive rebounds per game this year on the road, ranking him among the NBA's hottest by this metric over this stretch: 89th percentile.
While playing at home, the Heat have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (8.8) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (which also produce added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Ben Simmons has been called for 3.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (99th percentile).
The Brooklyn Nets have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing on the road this year (which also eliminates additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Nets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Heat.
Ben Simmons will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court tends to lowers stat production for all stats.

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