Andrew Wiggins Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Andrew Wiggins

F · Golden State Warriors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 3:13 AM EST

Analysis

Andrew Wiggins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Andrew Wiggins has successfully made 43.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games, 16.7% more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the year.
The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 25 games, the other team has collected 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Heat (turning over possessions that could otherwise lead to bonus opportunities for offense).
Andrew Wiggins has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 31.5% more than he's sunk over the course of the year while at home.
This year when they are at home, opposing teams have attempted 19.0 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 32.7 rate, Andrew Wiggins's playing time has diminished this season to 26.7 minutes per game.
Among all players in the NBA, Andrew Wiggins rates in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, registering a monstrous 2.4 fouls per game while at home this year.
As it relates to offense, the Golden State Warriors's unimpressive 45.3% field goal percentage as the home team comes in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year.
This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; their opposition has shot for the 9th-highest three rate in the league this year (37.8%).
The 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Warriors.