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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/12/2025

Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In comparison to last year's 3.5 mark, Aaron Nesmith's personal fouls per game have dropped this year to 2.7.

The Pacers rank as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The matchup against Washington is a good one for field goals; when the Wizards are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have compiled the 4th-highest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (50.2%).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The Washington Wizards have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to increased opportunities for the Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has shot and missed 2.6 attempts from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's missed over the course of the year.

The Pacers check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Aaron Nesmith should see a decline in output for all stats considering playing away from home in this game.

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