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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 10/30/2024

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 40.4% of his attempts from downtown since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile out of all players in the NBA.

The Pacers have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA since the start of last season.

The matchup vs. Boston is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Celtics are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.7).

Aaron Nesmith will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court tends to raise player performance in all stat categories.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the league, Aaron Nesmith lands in the 99th percentile for personal fouls, registering a whopping 3.2 fouls per game while at home since the start of last season.

The Celtics have played at the 8th-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Pacers.

The Pacers check in as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Boston may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a lowly 1.5 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Celtics are on the road (5th-least in the league).

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