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Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+105/-135).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Nesmith comes in at the 86th percentile for three-point proficiency when playing away from home with a a very good 42.2% rate this year.Aaron Nesmith has tallied 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 higher than he's tallied overall this year.This year, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 three attempts per game (29th-highest in the league) vs. the Celtics, marking this as a strong matchup.The speediest tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Pacers.Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Indiana Pacers rank 3rdbest in in the NBA with 13.0 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the league (99th percentile).The Pacers will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from competing against the 4th-slowest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics).Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have collected 12.2 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-highest in the league) against the Boston Celtics (maintaining possessions that can lead to further chances for offense).In regard to drawing fouls, the Pacers's feeble 20.9 foul shots per game places 4th-worst in the NBA over the last 25 games.Over the last 10 games when they are away from home, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 foul shots per game (9th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.
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