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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/28/2023

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

The Mavericks have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Dallas may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a massive 3.5 free throws per game over the last 18 games when the Mavericks are at home (26th-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has made 33.7% of his field goals while playing on the road this year, placing him in the 12th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Aaron Nesmith has attempted 0.7 treys per game over the last 15 games, -1.2 less than he's attempted overall this season.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 3.1 minutes per game over the last 15 games, -5.8 less than he's been on the court for over the course of the season.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 6th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league when playing away from home this year.

The matchup against the Mavericks is a hard one for scoring; opposing starting PFs have shot for the 15th-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (41.1%).

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