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Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith Points
Player Prop - 2/15/2023

Indiana Pacers vs Chicago Bulls

Aaron Nesmith Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Nesmith has sunk an impressive 40.0% of his shots from the field this season, quite a bit more than his 33.2 rate last season.

Aaron Nesmith has converted 2.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.1 higher than he's converted in all games this year while at home.

Aaron Nesmith has been on the court for 29.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games while at home, 4.3 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season at home.

The Indiana Pacers have been the 6th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to 3-point attempts.

The matchup against Patrick Williams is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; when squaring off against opposing starting PFs this year, they have attempted a whopping 5.0 threes per game (100th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Nesmith has committed 3.3 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 97th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.

The Indiana Pacers rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.

The matchup vs. Patrick Williams is a tough one for getting to the foul line; when Williams is away from his home court and defending opposing starting PFs this year, they have attempted a measly 2.8 foul shots per game (20th percentile).

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