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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 12/8/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Aaron Gordon has sunk a terrific 7.0 baskets per game this season, a big improvement over his 5.5 mark last season.

Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon comes in at the 87th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 33.2 minutes per game this year.

The matchup vs. Houston is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the Rockets are away from home, opposing starting SFs have averaged the 27th-most threes per game in the league this year (2.4).

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 7thbest in in the league with 12.1 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

With the home court advantage, the Houston Rockets have given up the 8th-least offensive boards per game (10.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has accumulated 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.1 higher than he's accumulated in all games this season.

The Nuggets have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA as the visting team this year.

The Houston Rockets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA away from their home court this year, which should decrease plays for the Denver Nuggets.

In comparison to last year's 62.4% clip, Aaron Gordon's foul-shot ability has tailed off this year to 44.9%.

As a team, the Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe: 3rd-worst in the NBA this year, tallying a measly 19.5 free throws per game.

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